🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Earned $436K on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from confidential information of American actions. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on non-public details," stated an industry expert. A handful of other traders also made large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on recently seeks to ban public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."